Business analytics and Intelligence
Assignment Brief  Mode E and R Regulations
Learning outcome 1: Define and evaluate key concepts of business analytics.
Learning outcome 2: Critically apply business analytics skills for decision making.
Learning outcome 3: Critically analyse and interpret the outputs of data mining models and forecasting results for endusers.
Learning outcome 4: Solve managerial problems and make systematic decisions by applying business data analysis techniques.
Learning outcome 5: Have ability to apply business analytics to various international business contexts by
selecting appropriate techniques.
Task OneBusiness analytics concepts
a. Describe what you have learned about the Forecasting methods. Give a proper example for that
b. Critically discuss and analyse five published papers which have used forecasting with proper explanation. The technique, its application and the results need to be interpreted properly
Task Two Marketing Analytics
By analyzing previous historical data for FitBit sale company, it can be seen that the sale volume has been changed according to its price in different periods. The values have been reported in the following table. This company is going to launch a new product and the price needs to be decided based on the market analysis. Determine the appropriate price for the new developed FitBit with the aim of maximizing the company`s profit. The demand of new product has a direct relationship to its price.
Table 1 Demands of FitBit based on a price level according to previous experiences
Price (£) 
Demand 
115 
4150 
118 
4070 
121 
3730 
126 
3420 
126 
3170 
129 
3020 
131 
2700 
136 
2550 
136 
2460 
138 
2400 
141 
2310 
144 
2220 
146 
2160 
148 
2140 
151 
2100 
154 
2080 
The main objective of the company is to maximize profit regarding to the new product. It is assumed that the unit production and supply cost of each FitBit is £76, so the profit of each unit will be (the sale price  unit production cost).
a) Use Excel to determine the estimated demand quadratic equation function and describe why quadratic form is preferred.
b) Use Excel solver to find the optimal price which maximizes the company`s profit.
c) Determine the optimal demand.
d) Compute the optimal profit.
e) Interpret the results.
f) If the supply cost of each FitBit is £67 and then £87 determine the optimal price and interpret the results appropriately.
g) Suppose that the supply cost is £87 and the company has decided to set the price less than £130, then what will be the optimal price? Interpret the results.
Task Three Forecasting
Suppose that you have gathered sales data of above company from 20152021 in different quarters. You are going to consider the company sales value and to forecast the company amount of sales in 2021 in different quarters. Look at the gathered data of previous years related to the amount of sales in each quarter which have been reported in Table 2.
Table 2 Data of amount of sales among previous years
Year 
Q 
Revenue 
Four Moving average 
Baseline 
Seasonality 
Deseasonality 
Trend 
Forecast 
Error 
MAD Error 
MSE 
MAPE 
2015 
Q1 
1920 










2015 
Q2 
2910 










2015 
Q3 
4630 










2015 
Q4 
2520 










2016 
Q1 
2100 










2016 
Q2 
3120 










2016 
Q3 
5050 










2016 
Q4 
2570 










2017 
Q1 
2250 










2017 
Q2 
3240 










2017 
Q3 
5230 










2017 
Q4 
2640 










2018 
Q1 
2360 










2018 
Q2 
3430 










2018 
Q3 
5600 










2018 
Q4 
2880 










2019 
Q1 
2590 










2019 
Q2 
3790 










2019 
Q3 
6220 










2019 
Q4 
3150 










2020 
Q1 
2810 










2020 
Q2 
4050 










2020 
Q3 
6560 










2020 
Q4 
3320 










2021 
Q1 
2940 










2021 
Q2 
4280 










2021 
Q3 
6900 










2021 
Q4 
3440 










a. Plot the data and describe the main features of the series.
b. Compute the fourperiod moving average and enter your values in the appropriate columns. Calculate the Centered Moving Average (CMA)/Baseline. Interpret it.
c. Calculate the Trend and interpret the trend.
d. Determine the Seasonality (St) and interpret it properly.
e. Forecast the revenue for 8th year.
f. Calculate the Error, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
g. Write a brief report to explain and evaluate and make comments on the error variables, the forecasted and actual revenues.